13 APR 2013 by ideonexus
Bayes' Theorem Means Scientific Consensus Should Converge
One property of Bayes’s theorem, in fact, is that our beliefs should converge toward one another—and toward the truth—as we are presented with more evidence over time. In figure 8-8, I’ve worked out an example wherein three investors are trying to determine whether they are in a bull market or a bear market. They start out with very different beliefs about this—one of them is optimistic, and believes there’s a 90 percent chance of a bull market from the outset, while another one i...As more and more tests are carried out, scientific opinions should converge around the truth.